Kalshi Crypto Cycle Model Trader

This is a template.
The default signal uses Bitcoin's 4-year halving cycle with diminishing returns to project fair year-end price probabilities -- remix it with on-chain metrics, options-implied vol, or macro regime models.
The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Bitcoin year-end price bin markets on Kalshi price outcomes independently. This skill prices them using the well-documented 4-year halving cycle pattern, where each post-halving cycle delivers diminishing but still substantial returns.

Key advantages:

• Halving cycle is public and verifiable -- historical pattern of 100x/30x/8x/3x post-halving returns
• Lognormal model -- converts expected price and volatility into bin probabilities
• Cycle position awareness -- April 2024 halving means we are in year 2 of cycle 4, approaching the historically strongest phase

Signal Logic

Halving Cycle Model