Kalshi Economic Nowcast Trader

This is a template.
The default signal uses the Cleveland Fed CPI Nowcast point estimate and standard deviation to price CPI bins -- remix it with real-time nowcast scraping, multiple nowcast sources, or Bayesian updating as data arrives.
The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Kalshi lists CPI bin markets ("Will CPI be between 0.2% and 0.3%?"). This skill prices each bin using the Cleveland Fed's CPI Nowcast as the mean of a normal distribution, then trades when the market price diverges from the model probability.

Key advantages:

• Cleveland Fed Nowcast is free and public -- updated regularly with high accuracy
• Normal distribution is well-calibrated for CPI -- historically fits actual outcomes
• Multiple bins per release -- diversified signal across the distribution

Signal Logic

Nowcast-to-Bin Model