Kalshi ETH Bin Distribution Trader

This is a template. The default signal uses the 100% sum constraint on price bins -- remix it with implied distribution fitting, volatility smile analysis, or cross-venue arbitrage. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Kalshi ETH price markets are structured as mutually exclusive bins (e.g., "ETH above $3000", "ETH $2500-$3000") that must sum to exactly 100%. When retail flow pushes individual bins out of alignment, the sum deviates from 100% and creates structural arbitrage.

Key advantages:

• Mathematical certainty -- bins MUST sum to 100%, deviations are temporary
• No external data needed -- pure internal consistency check
• Self-correcting -- market makers eventually re-align bins

Signal Logic

Sum Constraint Model