Kalshi F1 Teammate Anti-Correlation Trader

This is a template. The default signal uses static dominance ratios -- remix it with live head-to-head qualifying/race data for dynamic dominance estimation. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

F1 teammates share the same car, meaning their championship probabilities are structurally anti-correlated. If Verstappen's probability rises, Lawson's should fall (they share Red Bull's probability budget). Markets are slow to adjust both sides of teammate pairs simultaneously, creating exploitable relative mispricings.

Key advantages:

• Structural constraint -- teammate probabilities must sum to roughly the team's total share
• Dominance ratios are stable -- intra-team hierarchy rarely changes mid-season
• Markets adjust asymmetrically -- one driver's price moves but teammate's lags
• Pairs trading -- natural hedge structure reduces directional risk

Signal Logic

Teammate Anti-Correlation Model