Kalshi Fed Data Reaction Trader

This is a template. The default signal uses static data sensitivity coefficients -- remix it with live BLS data feeds, real-time CPI nowcasts, or Fed funds futures reactions. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

After CPI/jobs data releases, Fed rate probabilities adjust predictably. This skill scans Kalshi CPI bin markets to compute the market-implied CPI, classifies the data regime (high CPI, low CPI, neutral), and adjusts the fair probability of a rate cut accordingly. When the adjustment creates a gap vs. rate cut market prices, it trades.

Key advantages:

• Data-driven -- uses market-implied CPI from Kalshi's own CPI bin markets
• Predictable reaction function -- high CPI is hawkish, low CPI is dovish
• Cross-market information -- extracts signal from CPI markets to trade rate markets

Signal Logic

Data Sensitivity Model