48h Geopolitics Cluster Trader

This is a template. The default signal is geopolitical cluster consistency checking — remix it with additional constraint types, news sentiment, or satellite data feeds. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, cluster grouping, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Polymarket lists many geopolitical markets that form logical clusters:

• Strike-count markets: "Will Israel strike 5 countries?", "...6 countries?", "...7 countries?"
• Daily military action: "Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 21?", "...in Lebanon on March 20?"
• Bilateral escalation: "Will Iran conduct military action against Israel?"
• Ceasefire markets: "Will there be a ceasefire in Gaza?"

These markets are logically constrained. Striking 7 countries requires striking 6 first, so P(7) <= P(6) always. Escalation in one region affects others. When retail trades these markets in isolation, the constraints break — and that is the edge.

The Edge: Logical Consistency Arbitrage