48h Precipitation Range Trader

This is a template. The default signal is distribution-sum and monotonicity violation detection across precipitation-range bin markets — remix it with weather API feeds, historical precipitation data, or climate model ensembles. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, distribution construction, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Polymarket lists multiple precipitation range bins for the same city and period:

• "Will Seattle have more than 5 inches of precipitation in April?" = 18.8%
• "Will Seattle have between 4.5 and 5 inches in April?" = 17.5%
• "Will Seattle have between 4 and 4.5 inches in April?" = 29%
• "Will Seattle have between 3.5 and 4 inches in April?" = 19%
• "Will Seattle have between 3 and 3.5 inches in April?" = 19%
• "Will Seattle have between 2.5 and 3 inches in April?" = 20%

These range bins form a probability distribution that must sum to ~100%. When they don't, individual bins are mispriced. Additionally, cumulative markets ("more than X inches") must be monotonically decreasing as X increases.