48h Price Curve Arbitrage Trader

This is a template. The default signal is implied-CDF violation detection across crypto price-threshold markets — remix it with additional assets, curve-fitting models, or cross-venue price feeds. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, curve construction, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Polymarket lists dozens of price-threshold markets for the same asset and date:

• "Will BTC be above $64,000 on March 27?"
• "Will BTC be above $68,000 on March 27?"
• "Will BTC be between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 27?"
• "Will BTC be above $70,000 on March 27?"

Retail trades each market as an isolated bet. But together, these markets form an implied probability distribution curve — a CDF of where the market thinks the price will be.

This skill reconstructs that curve and finds where it is mathematically broken.