48h Weather Distribution Trader

This is a template. The default signal is distribution-sum and monotonicity violation detection across weather temperature-bin markets — remix it with weather API feeds, ensemble forecasts, or cross-city correlation models. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, distribution construction, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Polymarket lists multiple temperature bins for the same city and date:

• "Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8C on March 28?" = 40%
• "Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9C on March 28?" = 45%
• "Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10C on March 28?" = 16%

These bins form a probability distribution that must sum to ~100%. When they don't, individual bins are mispriced. Additionally, cumulative markets ("X C or below", "X C or higher") impose monotonicity constraints.

The Edge: Distribution Arbitrage for Temperature Markets

In traditional markets, discrete outcome probabilities must sum to 1.0 — this is a fundamental axiom. On Polymarket, each temperature bin trades independently with its own order book and liquidity. Retail treats each bin as an isolated bet without checking the full distribution.