polymarket-bundle-tennis-set-match-trader
Bundle -- Tennis Set-Match Constraint Trader
This is a template. The default signal detects cross-market constraint violations between tennis Set 1 O/U, Match O/U, Total Sets O/U, and Set Handicap props -- remix it with live score feeds, surface-specific models, or player fatigue data. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, bundle construction, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.
Strategy Overview
Tennis matches on Polymarket spawn multiple correlated prop markets: Set 1 Games O/U, Match Games O/U, Total Sets O/U, Set Handicap, and Set/Match Winner. These props are mathematically constrained -- match total games must always exceed Set 1 total games, and Total Sets O/U 2.5 directly implies the probability of a straight-sets finish which constrains set handicap pricing. When Polymarket prices violate these structural constraints, it is pure arbitrage.
Edge
Each tennis match prop is priced by its own order book with independent liquidity. Retail traders view each prop in isolation -- they price "Set 1 Games O/U 9.5" and "Match Games O/U 9.5" independently, ignoring the mathematical certainty that Match total >= Set 1 total. Similarly, "Total Sets O/U 2.5 OVER" at 60% means there is a 40% chance of a straight-sets finish, which directly bounds what "Set Handicap -1.5" should price at. No sportsbook would allow these constraints to be violated, but Polymarket has no central line-setter enforcing cross-prop consistency.