Candle -- Marubozu Continuation Trader

This is a template. The default signal detects marubozu (extreme conviction) intervals in crypto 5-minute markets and trades the continuation on the next interval using conviction-based sizing. The skill handles all the plumbing (interval parsing, marubozu detection, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Polymarket lists 5-minute interval markets for BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP: "Will BTC be Up or Down in the 10:50AM-10:55AM ET interval?" These resolve to YES (up) or NO (down) based on actual price movement. A "marubozu" in candlestick analysis is a candle with a full body and no wick -- extreme conviction with no hesitation. On Polymarket, this translates to an interval priced at >65% (bullish marubozu) or <35% (bearish marubozu). Marubozu is a continuation signal: the NEXT interval should follow the same direction because the extreme conviction reflects new information that has not yet been fully priced into subsequent intervals.

Edge

Unlike reversal strategies that fade strong moves, this skill trades with momentum when conviction is extreme. The continuation edge is structurally sound because:

1. Information propagation lag -- when an interval reaches >65% conviction, it reflects genuine new information (large move, news catalyst) that takes more than 5 minutes to fully propagate through the market
2. Underpricing of continuation -- Polymarket participants exhibit mean-reversion bias, systematically underpricing continuation after extreme intervals; they assume "it can't keep going" when the information says it will
3. Marubozu vs. ordinary strength -- an interval at 66% is qualitatively different from one at 56%; the former reflects near-consensus while the latter reflects mild directional lean. This skill only trades the extreme cases.
4. Asymmetric payoff -- because the next interval is underpriced for continuation, the YES/NO price offers favorable odds relative to the true conditional probability

Signal Logic