polymarket-central-bank-trader
Central Bank & Monetary Policy Trader
This is a template. The default signal is keyword-based market discovery combined with conviction-based sizing and
central_bank_bias()— three compounding structural edges, no external API required. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.
Strategy Overview
Central bank prediction markets are the most data-rich category on Polymarket — and among the worst-priced relative to the available data. The Fed publishes its own rate projections (dot plot), futures markets price every remaining meeting of the year, and inflation data is measured to two decimal places by multiple independent agencies. Three structural edges compound:
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Question tractability — The Fed's "no surprise" doctrine means near-term rate decisions are, by design, nearly pre-determined from public data weeks before the meeting. CME FedWatch futures have ~95% accuracy when pricing ≥85% probability for a near-term decision. Polymarket retail prices the same meeting at 70–80%. Emergency cuts happened three times in 25 years. Retail prices them at 15–30% in every crisis.
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FOMC communication cycle — The Fed operates on a strict 6-week cycle with a documented blackout period (~10 days before each meeting) when no official can speak publicly. Signal quality is highest in the 5 days post-meeting (fresh guidance, quarterly dot plot) and in the Fedspeak window (11–20 days before meeting). During blackout, no new guidance can arrive — markets are at maximum staleness. This cycle is computable from the published FOMC calendar.
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Data calendar timing — BLS CPI (10th–17th of each month), BEA PCE (25th+), and BLS NFP (1st–7th) all have fixed release schedules. The window immediately around each release is when inflation and rate-path markets are most actionable: the Cleveland Fed CPI Nowcast is within 0.1pp of the final print, but retail anchors to the prior month's number and never checks the nowcast.