polymarket-energy-transition-trader
Energy Transition Trader
This is a template. The default signal is keyword-based market discovery combined with conviction-based sizing and
transition_bias()— remix it with the data sources listed below. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.
Strategy Overview
Energy transition markets mix slow-moving structural trends with sharp data-driven catalysts. Retail traders consistently misprice two things: (1) they ignore the energy data calendar, where professional markets reprice on known release dates and Polymarket lags by days, and (2) they treat all energy sub-sectors as equally uncertain when nuclear regulatory timelines, OPEC cut patterns, and renewable pipeline data have very different predictability levels.
Signal Logic
Default Signal: Conviction-Based Sizing with Energy Transition Bias
- Discover active energy and transition markets on Polymarket
- Compute base conviction from distance to threshold (0% at boundary → 100% at p=0/p=1)
- Apply
transition_bias()— combines energy data calendar timing with technology tier confidence - Size =
max(MIN_TRADE, conviction × bias × MAX_POSITION)— capped at MAX_POSITION - Skip markets with spread > MAX_SPREAD or fewer than MIN_DAYS to resolution