Geopolitics & Conflict Trader

This is a template. The default signal is keyword-based market discovery combined with conviction-based sizing and geopolitics_bias() — remix it with the data sources listed below. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Geopolitical markets are systematically mispriced by retail traders in two ways: they overweight dramatic, scary outcomes relative to documented conflict research base rates, and they reprice slowly when breaking news hits during Asian or European business hours while US retail is asleep. This skill corrects both without any external API.

Signal Logic

Default Signal: Conviction-Based Sizing with Geopolitical Bias

1. Discover active geopolitical markets on Polymarket using conflict/diplomacy keywords
2. Compute base conviction from distance to threshold (0% at boundary → 100% at p=0/p=1)
3. Apply geopolitics_bias() — combines fear-premium correction with regional news timing
4. Size = max(MIN_TRADE, conviction × bias × MAX_POSITION) — capped at MAX_POSITION
5. Skip markets with spread > MAX_SPREAD or fewer than MIN_DAYS to resolution