Geopolitics Weekly Pattern Trader

This is a template. The default signal is keyword-based geopolitical market discovery combined with conviction-based sizing and weekly_pattern_multiplier() — four weekly cycle factors, no external API required. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Geopolitical news flow follows predictable weekly cycles. Military operations and official statements spike Monday through Thursday during government working hours. Diplomatic announcements — UN sessions, G7/G20 summits, bilateral talks — cluster around Tuesday through Thursday. Weekends see reduced news flow from both Western and non-Western governments, leaving Polymarket prices stale and ripe for Monday repricing.

Polymarket's US-dominated retail base amplifies this pattern: US traders are least active Saturday-Sunday, meaning Friday evening and weekend news breaks sit unpriced for 24-48 hours. Monday mornings bring a wave of repricing as Asian and European news from the weekend flows into the US market open.

This skill exploits four distinct weekly windows:

1. Weekend Staleness — Reduced US retail attention on Saturday/Sunday means news isn't fully absorbed. Moderate-probability geopolitical markets (20-40% or 60-80%) are most likely to reprice Monday.

2. Monday Repricing — The sharpest window. Weekend events get priced in during Monday 00:00-14:00 UTC as Asian, European, and US sessions open sequentially. Early Monday conviction boost: 1.25x.

3. Friday Afternoon Unwinding — Traders reduce risk before the weekend, creating temporary price dislocations as positions are closed. Friday 18:00+ UTC conviction boost: 1.10x.