Global Elections & Democracy Trader

This is a template. The default signal is keyword-based market discovery combined with conviction-based sizing and election_bias() — remix it with the data sources listed below. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Global election markets on Polymarket have two layered structural edges that compound cleanly without any external API:

1. Electoral system type — Polymarket retail trades all elections as if they were US presidential races. They aren't. FPTP systems amplify poll leads into landslides; proportional representation systems make outright majorities near-impossible. Retail systematically misprices both.

2. Regional information lag — Polymarket is US-English-speaking. Wahlrecht.de updates German polling daily. DataFolha updates Brazilian tracking daily. Neither is read by the average Polymarket trader. The lag between a 3-point swing in a non-English aggregator and Polymarket repricing is 12–48 hours.

Signal Logic

Default Signal: Conviction-Based Sizing with Election Bias