Ladder — Chess Tournament Distribution Trader

This is a template. The default signal is distribution-sum consistency checking across chess tournament winner markets — remix it with Elo rating feeds, tournament bracket analysis, or live game evaluation engines. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, tournament grouping, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Polymarket lists winner-takes-all chess tournament markets where each player has a separate "Will X win?" contract:

• FIDE Candidates Tournament: "Will Gukesh win the Candidates?", "Will Caruana win?", "Will Nakamura win?"
• Chess World Championship: "Will Carlsen win the World Championship?", "Will Ding Liren win?"
• Any tournament: The skill discovers chess tournament markets dynamically via keyword search and broad market scanning

These markets form a probability distribution. Exactly one player wins, so the individual winner probabilities must sum to approximately 100%. When retail trades these markets in isolation, the sum drifts — and that is the edge.

The Edge: Distribution Sum Arbitrage

In a winner-takes-all tournament with N players, the mathematical constraint is: