skills/skills.volces.com/polymarket-ladder-esports-kills-trader

polymarket-ladder-esports-kills-trader

Installation
SKILL.md

Ladder — Esports Kills Curve Trader

This is a template. The default signal is kill total O/U ladder violation detection for esports markets -- remix it with additional titles, map types, or live match data feeds. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, ladder construction, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Esports matches (Dota 2, CS2, Overwatch) list multiple kill total thresholds for the same game:

  • "Team A vs Team B Total Kills O/U 47.5" = 58%
  • "Team A vs Team B Total Kills O/U 48.5" = 55%
  • "Team A vs Team B Total Kills O/U 49.5" = 52%
  • "Team A vs Team B Total Kills O/U 50.5" = 54% <-- VIOLATION

These form a kill total ladder -- higher thresholds must always have lower OVER probability. When they don't, it is structural arbitrage.

The Edge: Kill Ladder Monotonicity Arbitrage

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Apr 23, 2026