Ladder -- F1 Championship Distribution Trader

This is a template. The default signal exploits distribution-sum violations in F1 championship winner markets. No external API required beyond simmer-sdk. The skill discovers F1 driver championship markets, groups them by championship, checks whether the implied probability distribution sums to ~100%, and trades the correction when it drifts.

Strategy Overview

In a winner-takes-all market like "Who will be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?", the individual driver probabilities must sum to approximately 100%. On Polymarket, each driver is listed as a separate binary market. Because each market has its own bid-ask spread, retail flow, and narrative momentum, the implied probabilities frequently drift apart:

• Sum > 105%: The field is collectively overpriced. Each driver's YES price is inflated relative to the fair share of 100%. We sell the most overpriced drivers (buy NO on the highest-probability ones).
• Sum < 95%: The field is collectively underpriced. Each driver's YES price is too low. We buy the most underpriced drivers (buy YES on the lowest-probability ones).

This is a structural arbitrage on probability distributions, not a directional bet on any single driver winning or losing.

The Core Insight: Why Distribution Violations Exist

Three mechanisms create and sustain distribution-sum violations: