Ladder -- Social Posts Distribution Trader

This is a template. The default signal is distribution-sum violation detection across social media post-count range markets -- remix it with social media API feeds, posting frequency models, or cross-person correlation analysis. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, distribution construction, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Polymarket lists multiple post-count range bins for the same person and date range:

• "Will CZ post 140-159 posts from March 1 to April 1?" = 25%
• "Will CZ post 160-179 posts from March 1 to April 1?" = 30%
• "Will CZ post 180-199 posts from March 1 to April 1?" = 20%

These bins form a probability distribution that must sum to ~100%. When they don't, individual bins are mispriced. This skill also detects individual bin anomalies where one bin deviates significantly from its neighbors.

The Edge: Distribution Arbitrage for Post-Count Markets

In traditional markets, discrete outcome probabilities must sum to 1.0 -- this is a fundamental axiom. On Polymarket, each post-count range bin trades independently with its own order book and liquidity. Retail treats each bin as an isolated bet without checking the full distribution.