Legal & Regulatory Trader

This is a template. The default signal is keyword-based market discovery combined with probability-extreme detection — remix it with the data sources listed in the Edge Thesis below. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Legal prediction markets have enormous information asymmetry — most Polymarket retail participants don't read court filings or understand regulatory procedure. They price criminal convictions as coin flips when the actual DOJ conviction rate is ~97%. This skill encodes documented institutional base rates directly into conviction sizing.

Signal Logic

Default Signal: Conviction-Based Sizing with Precedent Bias

1. Discover active legal and regulatory markets on Polymarket
2. Compute base conviction from distance to threshold (0% at boundary → 100% at p=0/p=1)
3. Apply precedent_bias() — multiplier based on documented legal/regulatory outcome statistics
4. Size = max(MIN_TRADE, conviction × bias × MAX_POSITION) — capped at MAX_POSITION
5. Skip markets with spread > MAX_SPREAD or fewer than MIN_DAYS to resolution