Macro Asymmetric Longshot Trader

This is a template. The default signal scans for longshot markets (2-10% probability) and scores their macro support using cross-category related markets -- remix it with news sentiment analysis, social media signals, or expert forecaster aggregation. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, category classification, macro scoring, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Most prediction market participants avoid longshots entirely ("5% means it won't happen") or pick them randomly based on gut feeling ("wouldn't it be cool if..."). Neither approach is systematic.

This trader scans ALL markets for longshots priced between 2% and 10%, then uses CROSS-CATEGORY macro signals to identify which longshots are systematically underpriced. A $5 bet at 5% returns $100 if right. The edge isn't in predicting any single longshot correctly -- it's in finding the ones where the market is pricing 5% but the macro context suggests 15-30%.

Edge

Cross-category macro support scoring separates randomly cheap markets from systematically underpriced ones:

1. Crypto ladder effect -- If "BTC above $60k" is at 80% and "BTC above $65k" is at 50%, then "BTC above $70k" at 6% is likely underpriced. The probability ladder should be smoother than what retail prices -- they dramatically underweight tail scenarios when the body of the distribution is already moving.

2. Health escalation cascades -- If "measles > 500 cases" is at 85% and "measles > 1000" is at 60%, then "measles > 2000" at 5% is underpriced. Epidemics have exponential growth dynamics that make escalation more likely than linear extrapolation suggests.