Crypto-Geopolitics Lag Trader

This is a template. The default signal computes geopolitical heat and crypto optimism scores, then trades crypto threshold markets that are lagging behind geopolitical repricing -- remix it with oil futures data, crypto funding rates, or defense ETF flows. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, geo/crypto classification, divergence detection, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Iran military escalation leads to oil price spikes which lead to crypto drops -- this is the well-documented crisis inverse correlation. On Polymarket, geopolitical escalation markets (Iran, Israel, military action) and crypto price threshold markets (Bitcoin above $X) are traded by different communities. When a geopolitical shock hits, the geo markets reprice within minutes but crypto threshold markets often take hours to adjust. This skill detects that lag and trades it.

Edge

Geo-crypto divergence captures a structural information asymmetry:

1. Community segregation -- Geopolitics traders and crypto traders are largely separate populations on Polymarket; they watch different news feeds and react to different catalysts
2. Causal chain delay -- The Iran escalation -> oil spike -> crypto drop chain has multiple links; each link adds repricing delay
3. Anchoring bias -- Crypto traders anchor to recent BTC price levels and are slow to update threshold market probabilities in response to geopolitical events
4. Inverse correlation in crisis -- The BTC-geopolitical risk inverse correlation is strongest during acute crises, which is exactly when the lag is largest