Macro Fear Index Trader

This is a template. The default signal aggregates four fear dimensions from Polymarket market probabilities -- remix it with VIX data, credit default swap spreads, or social media sentiment scores. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, fear scoring, regime detection, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Markets overreact to fear. When geopolitical tensions spike, crypto crashes, disease outbreaks emerge, and extreme weather hits simultaneously, traders panic-sell across ALL categories -- even markets that have nothing to do with the fear catalyst. This creates oversold opportunities.

This skill builds a custom fear index from Polymarket's own markets:

• Geopolitical fear (weight: 0.35): escalation probability, military action, nuclear risk
• Crypto fear (weight: 0.30): inverse of BTC/ETH bullish market probabilities
• Health fear (weight: 0.20): disease outbreak, case count escalation probabilities
• Weather fear (weight: 0.15): extreme weather event probabilities

When the composite fear index exceeds the PANIC threshold, the skill finds ALL markets below YES_THRESHOLD and buys the most oversold ones -- these have been pushed too low by indiscriminate fear selling.