Micro Spread Sniper Trader

This is a template. The default signal is purely price-based with a strict spread filter -- no external API required. The skill discovers markets via keyword sweep (Bitcoin Up or Down, Ethereum Up or Down, Solana Up or Down, XRP Up or Down) plus a direct get_markets(limit=100) scan, identifies extreme probabilities where the bid-ask spread is unusually tight, and places micro-sized bets on the near-certain outcome. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, spread filtering, volume gating, conviction sizing, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Polymarket lists markets across many categories. Some of these markets reach extreme probabilities (>= 80% or <= 8%) where the outcome is near-certain. The key insight: when a market also has a tight bid-ask spread (<= 8%), it means the market maker is confident in the direction and is pricing it efficiently. Wide spreads at extreme prices signal uncertainty; tight spreads signal conviction.

The skill scans for markets matching this microstructure signal using 4 keywords (Bitcoin Up or Down, Ethereum Up or Down, Solana Up or Down, XRP Up or Down) plus get_fast_markets() and get_markets(limit=100) fallback. It applies three gates: spread <= 8% (MAX_SPREAD=0.08), probability outside the 8%/80% bands (YES_THRESHOLD=0.08, NO_THRESHOLD=0.80), and volume >= $500 (MIN_VOLUME=500). Trades that pass all gates get conviction-based sizing from $2 to $10 across up to 20 concurrent micro positions.

Example: A market at p=88% with spread=5%. Spread passes (5% <= 8%). Probability passes (88% >= 80%). Conviction = (0.88 - 0.80) / (1 - 0.80) = 0.40. Size = max($2, 0.40 * $10) = $4. The skill sells NO at $4 -- backing the near-certain YES resolution.

Edge

Tight spread + extreme probability is a market microstructure signal. A market at 90% with a 10% spread means the market maker is uncertain -- the wide spread compensates for directional risk. A market at 90% with a 5% spread means the market maker is confident and willing to offer tight pricing. The tight spread acts as a quality filter separating genuinely near-certain outcomes from noisy extreme prices in illiquid markets.