Micro Weather Sniper Trader

This is a template. The default signal uses NOAA (US) and Open-Meteo (global) weather forecasts to find mispriced temperature bins on Polymarket -- remix it with additional weather sources, ensemble model averaging, or multi-day position building. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, forecast fetching, bin matching, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Polymarket lists "highest temperature" bin markets for cities worldwide (e.g. "Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C on April 10?"). These bins are priced by market participants who often lack access to professional weather forecast data.

This skill fetches actual weather forecasts from NOAA (US cities, ~85% accuracy for 1-2 day predictions) and Open-Meteo (global cities, free API, similar accuracy). It then compares the forecast temperature against each market bin:

• If the forecast matches the bin and the market price is low (p <= 20%): BUY YES -- the market is underpricing a likely outcome.
• If the forecast disagrees with the bin and the market price is high (p >= 80%): SELL NO -- the market is overpricing an unlikely outcome.

Example: Open-Meteo forecasts Warsaw high = 10°C on April 10. The bin "Warsaw 10°C" is priced at p=20%. Edge = 0.85 - 0.20 = 0.65. Conviction = 0.65 / 0.85 = 0.76. Size = max($2, 0.76 * $5) = $3.82. The skill buys YES at $3.82.

Edge