Polymarket NegRisk Arbitrage Trader

This is a template. The default signal is NegRisk price sum deviation from $1.00 — remix it with tighter thresholds, different min-profit floors, or additional liquidity filters. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, grouping, batch execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the edge by tuning when and how aggressively to enter.

Scan multi-outcome markets for mathematical arbitrage opportunities. When the sum of all outcome prices deviates from $1.00, buy the mispriced side across all buckets simultaneously using Simmer's batch trade endpoint.

No signals. No AI. Just math.

Strategy

Polymarket NegRisk markets have multiple mutually exclusive outcomes (e.g., election candidates, tweet count ranges). Exactly one outcome resolves YES = $1.00.

The Math: