OnlyFans Trader

This is a remixable template. The default signal requires no external API — it uses keyword-derived demographic multipliers, jurisdiction-specific regulatory priors, and date-based earnings seasonality applied on top of standard conviction sizing. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your signal provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

OnlyFans is one of the fastest-growing and most widely covered platforms in prediction markets — yet it is systematically mispriced in three distinct and exploitable ways.

1. Celebrity pipeline bias — Retail prices "will [celebrity] join OnlyFans?" based on general fame level, treating it as a rare or tabloid-worthy event. The actual base rate by demographic category tells a completely different story: reality TV contestants join at ~40%, Instagram models at ~30%, athletes at ~20%. Markets on reality TV show participants routinely sit at 15–20% — 2–3x below the historical base rate. We buy YES aggressively. Conversely, A-list Hollywood actors are priced at 15–25% when the true base rate is ~5% — tabloid speculation inflates prices above reality. We fade those.

2. Regulatory theater — Every 6–12 months a government announces it will "crack down on" or "ban" OnlyFans. These markets are priced by retail on political rhetoric. Legislative reality is different: the average time from "announced review" to enforceable legislation is 3–7 years, court injunctions routinely block enforcement, and VPN workarounds make practical bans largely unenforceable. Of 40+ announced restrictions since 2020, fewer than 3 resulted in enforceable law within 12 months. We systematically buy NO on ban markets.

3. Creator earnings seasonality — OnlyFans revenue is strongly seasonal, driven by the gift economy. The two weeks before Valentine's Day (February) is the single highest-revenue period for most creators. Black Friday, Christmas, and New Year also drive subscription spikes. Summer months show 10–20% lower-than-average activity. Earnings milestone markets that don't account for this seasonal structure are systematically off.

The Core Insight: Three Different Market Types, Three Different Edges

This skill classifies each market before trading it: