Science Milestones & Research Trader

This is a template. The default signal is keyword-based market discovery combined with conviction-based sizing and science_bias() — remix it with the data sources listed below. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Science markets are priced by non-experts following journalist headlines. Journalists systematically amplify the most optimistic interpretation of scientific results. The research community knows the replication rates, timeline track records, and definitional ambiguities behind each claim type. Retail doesn't. This creates large, consistent mispricings — and two of the most exploitable edges anywhere on Polymarket: hype-claim dampening and Nobel calendar timing.

Signal Logic

Default Signal: Conviction-Based Sizing with Science Hype Correction

1. Discover active science and research markets on Polymarket
2. Compute base conviction from distance to threshold (0% at boundary → 100% at p=0/p=1)
3. Apply science_bias() — combines science claim type with Nobel calendar timing
4. Size = max(MIN_TRADE, conviction × bias × MAX_POSITION) — capped at MAX_POSITION
5. Skip markets with spread > MAX_SPREAD or fewer than MIN_DAYS to resolution