Social Trends & Wellbeing Trader

This is a template. The default signal is keyword-based market discovery combined with conviction-based sizing and policy_bias() — remix it with the data sources listed below. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Social policy markets are dominated by ideologically motivated traders who bet on what they want to happen, not what evidence suggests will happen. This is the most consistent and exploitable mispricing pattern on Polymarket. The skill corrects for it with two hard-coded structural edges: issue-type ideological distortion and the US legislative calendar.

Signal Logic

Default Signal: Conviction-Based Sizing with Policy Bias

1. Discover active social policy and wellbeing markets on Polymarket
2. Compute base conviction from distance to threshold (0% at boundary → 100% at p=0/p=1)
3. Apply policy_bias() — combines ideological motivation correction with legislative calendar
4. Size = max(MIN_TRADE, conviction × bias × MAX_POSITION) — capped at MAX_POSITION
5. Skip markets with spread > MAX_SPREAD or fewer than MIN_DAYS to resolution