polymarket-sports-live
Installation
SKILL.md
Live Sports Score Arbitrage
Real-time live score arbitrage against Polymarket sports markets using ESPN data.
What It Does
Every 2 minutes, pulls live scores from ESPN's public API and calculates fair win probabilities using sport-specific statistical models:
| Sport | Model | Key Parameter |
|---|---|---|
| NBA | Gaussian | sigma = 12.5 points |
| NFL | Gaussian | sigma = 13.5 points |
| NHL | Gaussian | sigma = 1.5 goals |
| Soccer | Poisson | lambda = 1.35 goals/90min |
Gaussian model: P(win) = CDF(lead / (sigma * sqrt(t_remaining / T)))