Twitter Bin Decay Trader

This is a template.
The default signal estimates posts-so-far from elapsed time and daily rate — remix it with real-time post counting via Twitter API, Social Blade scrapers, or Polymarket order flow analysis.
The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

As a posting period progresses, bins become mathematically eliminable. If Elon has estimated ~130 tweets after 2 of 3 days, the "40-64" bin is dead — but it might still trade at 5-10% because the market is slow to update.

This skill tracks the elapsed fraction of each market's period and computes which bins are still viable, which are dead, and which are on-trajectory.

Signal Logic

Viability Computation