polymarket-twitter-cross-contagion-trader
Installation
SKILL.md
Twitter Cross-Contagion Trader
This is a template.
The default signal detects cross-person posting correlation from market prices — remix it with real-time Twitter API monitoring, topic co-occurrence tracking, or network graph analysis of reply/quote-tweet chains.
The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.
Strategy Overview
Public figures don't post in isolation. When Elon Musk enters a political debate, Trump often responds on Truth Social. When crypto crashes, both CZ and Vitalik spike their posting rates.
Markets price each person's bins independently. This skill exploits the cross-person correlation that markets miss.
Signal Logic
Phase 1: Detect Contagion
- Group all post-count bin markets by person
- Compute each person's "heat" — are the market prices shifted toward higher bins?
- Positive heat = market expects more posts than baseline (person is "hot")