Whale Contrarian Trader

Strategy Overview

This skill exploits information asymmetry between retail traders and top-performing whales on Polymarket. When a market's probability sits at an extreme (above 70% or below 30%), it reflects strong retail consensus. If multiple top leaderboard wallets are simultaneously taking the opposite side, it signals that smart money disagrees with the crowd.

The skill fetches the public Polymarket leaderboard, tracks recent whale activity, cross-references it against markets at probability extremes, and trades in the whale's direction when enough whales independently oppose retail consensus.

Signal Logic

1. Fetch leaderboard -- Pull top 50 wallet addresses from the public leaderboard API.
2. Fetch wallet activity -- For each whale, retrieve recent trades from the Polymarket data API.
3. Identify extreme markets -- Markets where probability > CONTRARIAN_THRESHOLD (70%) or < 1 - CONTRARIAN_THRESHOLD (30%).
4. Detect opposition -- For each extreme market, count whales trading the opposite direction from retail consensus.
5. Generate signal -- If at least MIN_WHALE_OPPOSITION whales (default: 2) are on the contrarian side, generate a trade signal in the whale's direction.
6. Conviction sizing -- Base conviction from threshold bands, boosted by a whale multiplier: 1.0 + min(0.4, (whale_count - 1) * 0.1).

Edge Thesis