Whale Momentum Trader

Strategy Overview

This skill monitors the top-performing wallets on Polymarket (via the predicting.top leaderboard) and detects momentum consensus -- when multiple whale wallets independently enter the same market on the same side within a short time window.

The core insight: when 2+ top-performing traders independently decide to buy the same side of a market within 48 hours, they are likely reacting to the same underlying information edge. This convergence is a stronger signal than any single whale trade.

Signal Logic

1. Fetch leaderboard    -> Top N wallets from predicting.top
2. Fetch activity       -> Recent trades per wallet from Polymarket data API
3. Build momentum map   -> For each market: count YES wallets vs NO wallets
4. Filter signals       -> Markets with MIN_WHALES+ wallets on the same side
5. Match markets        -> Find corresponding Simmer market for each signal
6. Boosted signal       -> Conviction-based sizing + whale consensus boost
7. Trade                -> Place order if whale direction aligns with threshold signal