YouTube Channel Trader

This is a remixable template. The default signal requires no external API — it uses hardcoded channel volatility profiles, a first-hour view velocity model, and day-of-week timing applied on top of standard conviction sizing. Wire in YouTube Data API v3 for live subscriber counts and view velocity, and the edge sharpens dramatically. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your signal provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

The top 10 YouTube channels are treated as distinct financial assets — each with its own volatility profile, growth trajectory, and event calendar. Subscriber counts are market cap. Subscriber deltas are daily returns. View velocity on a new video is trading volume.

Prediction markets on YouTube milestones are systematically mispriced because retail treats all channels the same. They don't. MrBeast has 10× the daily growth volatility of Cocomelon. A milestone 5% above current subscribers has a completely different probability for these two channels.

Three structural edges compound:

1. First-hour view velocity mispricing When a major channel drops a video, view counts do not accumulate uniformly over 24 hours. MrBeast captures ~55% of his 24-hour views in the first hour. A market asking "will this video reach 5M views in the first 2 hours?" is a first-passage probability question. Retail prices it as a terminal probability. The same structural gap that makes BTC weekend markets exploitable makes YouTube flash markets exploitable.

2. Channel volatility profiles Each of the top 10 channels has a measurable daily subscriber growth σ. Children's content (Cocomelon, Kids Diana Show, Like Nastya, Vlad and Niki) has σ ≈ 0.02%/day — extremely stable, like a stablecoin. Milestone markets are fairly priced. MrBeast has σ ≈ 0.25%/day with positive skew (viral videos spike subscribers; nothing crashes them). Milestone markets for MrBeast chronically underprice the upside tail. PewDiePie has high σ with slight negative skew — comeback/retirement uncertainty dominates.