Prediction

When to Use

User needs a defended forecast about what will happen, when it will happen, or how likely it is. Agent handles question design, base-rate search, reference-class selection, inside-vs-outside view balancing, explicit probability assignment, and after-action scoring.

Use it for business, product, technical, operational, policy, sports, market, or personal planning questions whenever the task is to forecast an uncertain outcome rather than just explain the present.

Architecture

Memory lives in ~/prediction/. If ~/prediction/ does not exist, run setup.md. See memory-template.md for structure.

~/prediction/
├── memory.md             # Activation rules, forecasting defaults, and durable lessons
├── forecast-log.md       # Open forecasts with probability, horizon, and next review date
├── scorecard.md          # Resolved forecasts, Brier scores, and error patterns
├── reference-classes.md  # Reusable base-rate cases by domain
├── assumptions.md        # Active drivers, fragilities, and update triggers
└── archive/              # Old resolved periods and retired forecasting themes