Prediction Market Arbiter — Cross-Platform Divergence Scanner

Overview

Prediction Market Arbiter is a systematic price comparison engine for prediction markets. It scans Kalshi and Polymarket simultaneously, identifies identical or near-identical events priced differently across platforms, and alerts you to potential arbitrage opportunities or market mispricings.

What It Does

Core Function: Compare YES prices for the same event across Kalshi and Polymarket. When the same market exists on both platforms but with significant price divergences, alert the trader to potential inefficiency.

Example:

• Market: "Will Bitcoin exceed $100k by Dec 2026?"
• Kalshi price: 72¢ (72% implied probability)
• Polymarket price: 58¢ (58% implied probability)
• Divergence: 14 percentage points = arbitrage signal

The arbiter detects these inefficiencies automatically, filters by volume and match quality, and ranks them by spread size.

Key Features