Bayesian Reasoning & Calibration

Table of Contents

• Purpose
• When to Use This Skill
• What is Bayesian Reasoning?
• Workflow
  • 1. Define the Question
  • 2. Establish Prior Beliefs
  • 3. Identify Evidence & Likelihoods
  • 4. Calculate Posterior
  • 5. Calibrate & Document
• Common Patterns
• Guardrails
• Quick Reference

Purpose