Chain Estimation → Decision → Storytelling

Table of Contents

• Workflow
• Common Patterns
• Guardrails
• Quick Reference

Three phases: Estimation (quantify uncertain variables with ranges and probabilities), Decision (apply expected value or scoring to identify best option), Storytelling (package analysis into compelling narrative for stakeholders).

Quick Example:

# Should we build custom analytics or buy a SaaS tool?

## Estimation
Build custom: $200k-$400k dev cost (60% likely $300k), $50k/year maintenance
Buy SaaS: $120k/year subscription, $20k implementation