Decision Making

Most bad decisions are not caused by bad reasoning - they are caused by deciding the wrong question, rationalizing a pre-chosen favorite, or spending a week of analysis on a choice that could be undone in an afternoon. This process matches the depth of analysis to the stakes, forces criteria to be written before options are scored, and leaves a journal entry so judgment can be calibrated later.

Operating procedure

Order matters: classification comes first because it decides whether the rest of the process runs at all, and criteria must be locked before any option is scored - scoring first invites rationalizing a favorite.

Step 1: Gather inputs

Collect before analyzing. Label any estimate the user cannot source as a guess.

• The decision, stated in one sentence with a deadline. Default deadline if none exists: set one now - endless analysis is itself a costly choice.
• The real options on the table. Push for at least three; a binary framing usually hides a third option (negotiate, delay, pilot, partial commitment).
• What happens if the user does nothing (the status quo is always an option and often the silently chosen one).
• Constraints that are truly fixed vs. merely assumed.
• The user's emotional state (tired, rushed, angry, infatuated with one option) - record it; it belongs in the journal entry.

Step 2: Classify reversibility