hypothesis-tree
Installation
SKILL.md
Hypothesis Tree
A hypothesis tree is your Day-1 best guess, structured so you can disprove it fast. Issue trees decompose the question; hypothesis trees commit to an answer and tell you what to go test.
The McKinsey discipline: don't start work without a hypothesis. Otherwise you research forever, find nothing surprising, and produce a "comprehensive overview" no one acts on.
Issue tree vs. hypothesis tree
| Issue Tree | Hypothesis Tree | |
|---|---|---|
| Top | The question | The answer (your guess) |
| Branches | Sub-questions (MECE problem space) | Sub-claims that, if true, prove the top claim |
| Bottom | Areas to investigate | Specific tests that would kill the claim |
| Use when | You don't know what matters yet | You have a strong prior and want to test it efficiently |
| Risk if skipped | You miss a dimension | You waste 6 weeks on analysis that doesn't move conviction |
Both belong in the consultant toolkit. Issue tree first (frame the space), hypothesis tree second (commit and test). Skipping the hypothesis tree is the #1 reason strategy work takes 3x longer than it should.