Earnings Surprise Detector

The problem it solves

You see a research report or hear a thesis: "X will grow earnings 80-120% this quarter." You build a position plan on that number. Then the actual earnings come in at -17%. You're now holding a bag based on a fantasy.

This happened. Multiple times. 太辰光: research said +80-120%, actual was -17%. 英维克: research said +150%, actual was -82%. 欧陆通: research said +180%, actual was a loss.

The fix is simple: verify before you act. Pull the actual number from an authoritative source (东方财富 via mx-data), compare to the expectation, and let the gap govern your action.

When to use

• Any A-share recommendation that cites expected earnings growth (扣非同比, 营收同比, EPS)
• Before stating entry prices, position sizes, or 9-column execution tables
• When a research report or thesis hinges on a specific growth figure
• Before adding to an existing position based on earnings momentum

Do NOT skip this step. "The research said X" is not verification. "I pulled the actual number from 东方财富 and it confirms Y" is verification.