Thesis Falsifier

When to use

• You have a thesis you're about to act on (buy / sell / hold / size up)
• You feel conviction — that's the signal to run this, NOT skip it
• Works on any asset: stocks, crypto, macro bets, career decisions, anything with a "because"

The problem it solves

Most investment theses are unfalsifiable narratives. "AI will drive growth" can never be wrong because it's vague. The skill's job: make the thesis falsifiable, then try to kill it.

A thesis that survives an honest assassination attempt is worth acting on. One that doesn't survive was confirmation bias dressed up as analysis.

Workflow

Step 1 — 证伪化改写 (Make it falsifiable)

Take the user's thesis and break it into 3 testable claims:

• Claim A (事实): Is Y actually true? (verifiable now — earnings, data, shipping product)
• Claim B (未定价): Is Y already priced in? (has the stock already moved on this?)
• Claim C (持续性): Will Y persist long enough to matter for the position's horizon?