forecast-creator-pipeline
Installation
SKILL.md
Use when the creator channel needs a forward number leadership can hold you to. Produces a pipeline forecast from five inputs — all observable, none hand-waved.
The five inputs
- budget (B) — the quarter's spend
- cost per qualified click (C) — from your own campaign history; network baseline ~€2.30–2.40
- click → opportunity rate (O) — planning band 3–6% for a well-defined ICP audience
- opportunity → close rate (W) — your actual sales win rate, from the CRM
- ACV — real average contract value, from the CRM
Qualified click means tracked AND ≥30 seconds on-site — the behavioral definition is what makes the whole model honest.
The model
qualified clicks = B ÷ C → opportunities = clicks × O → deals = opportunities × W → new ARR = deals × ACV → return = ARR ÷ B
Worked example at €10,000: 4,167 clicks → 167 opportunities (4%) → 33 deals (20% win) → €200K ARR at €6K ACV → 20× gross return. Run the conservative case too: at 3% and 15% the same budget returns €67.5K (6.75×). Present both — the range is the forecast.