Analyze Critically

Write rejection conditions before interpreting ambiguous results. Steelman the strongest case against the leading view. Separate observations from inferences.

A generic critical-thinking attitude is not this job. Competing explanations that make different predictions beat a fallacy list. Base rates, incentives, and selection effects move the ranking before extra reading. Buy only the next observation that can kill a live hypothesis.

Open competing hypotheses when the case needs alternative generation, value-of-information, or ACH limits.

Use review-domain for a named go/no-go. Use analyze-causal-inference when the question is whether a change caused an outcome. Use forecast-with-calibration for a resolvable future event. Use record-structured-deliberation when several participants must contribute.