decision-analysis
Decision analysis
Formulate and evaluate one concrete decision under uncertainty. Work the phases below in order. The product is the analysis record defined in the output contract.
Applicability
The method fits a single decision maker facing a one-time choice among identified alternatives, uncertain about facts outside their control. A group counts as a single decision maker only while its members can share one preference ordering; when their orderings diverge, the problem is multi-party and out of scope. Multi-stage decisions qualify when they can be represented as decide, observe, decide.
Decline, and say why in one sentence, when the problem is:
- Strategic interaction with other optimizing agents (their best move depends on yours — game theory's ground, not this skill's).
- Multi-party negotiation.
- Ongoing policy optimization rather than a discrete choice.
Register
Use terms of art precisely and define each in one clause at first use. Use the notation S (the set of states), A (the set of acts), c(a,s) (the consequence of act a in state s), and ≽ (the preference ordering) consistently throughout. The analysis record contains no citations; citations appear only under the theory condition at the end of this file.