Bayesian Reasoning & Calibration

Table of Contents

• Workflow
  • 1. Define the Question
  • 2. Establish Prior Beliefs
  • 3. Identify Evidence & Likelihoods
  • 4. Calculate Posterior
  • 5. Calibrate & Document
• Common Patterns
• Guardrails
• Quick Reference

Core formula: P(H|E) = P(E|H) x P(H) / P(E), where P(H) = prior, P(E|H) = likelihood, P(H|E) = posterior.

Quick Example: