Variance Strategy Selector

Table of Contents

• Example
• Workflow
• Common Patterns
• Guardrails
• Quick Reference

Example

Scenario: A fantasy manager is 15% behind their opponent with 3 lineup slots left to decide this week. Losing this week eliminates them from playoff contention.

Inputs:

• current_win_probability = 0.32 (heavy underdog)
• downside_asymmetry = 0.90 (must-win, catastrophic if lost)
• slots_to_decide = 3

Band classification: win_probability < 0.40 -> posture = "seek", base multiplier range 1.15-1.30.