Causal Inference Check

Purpose

Assess whether a causal claim is justified by the available evidence, identify what alternative explanations exist, and recommend what method or evidence is needed to support the claim rigorously.

When to use

Use this skill when:

• a team states or implies that X caused Y based on observational data ("we added feature X and retention went up")
• a root-cause-analysis or hypothesis-tree investigation arrives at a confident-sounding conclusion that lacks experimental backing
• a decision is being justified with a correlation rather than controlled evidence
• you need to evaluate whether non-experimental evidence is strong enough to act on

When not to use

Do not use this skill when: